Last week’s seismic voter shift to George W. Bush
showed
no signs of dwindling in this week’s Time Poll. Bush
continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters
by double digits,
52% - 41%, in the three way race, with Nader at 3%, the same as last
week.
Putting this into perspective, just a month ago,
post-Democratic
convention, the Time Poll had Kerry with a statistically
significant
lead over Bush, 48% - 43%.
Vote for President?
(Likely Voters)
|
Sept. 7-Sept.
9
|
Aug. 31-Sept.
2
|
Aug. 24-26
|
Aug. 3-5
|
Bush
|
52%
|
52%
|
46%
|
43%
|
Kerry
|
41%
|
41%
|
44%
|
48%
|
Nader
|
3%
|
3%
|
5%
|
4%
|
Don't
know
|
3%
|
3%
|
3%
|
3%
|
With almost two months left, and the candidate
debates upcoming, it is still too soon to conclude whether the Bush
bounce will translate
into continuing momentum or fall back down to the ground. Clearly, this
Time
Poll finds no signs of Bush erosion so far. By contrast, Kerry’s
standing
vs. Bush on key issues, such as the economy and fighting terrorism,
have
slipped. Moreover, a late August Time Poll, taken before the
Republican
Convention, captured the first signs of Kerry slippage following
blistering
attacks on Kerry’s Vietnam
service.
Historically, bounces often do disappear. For
example,
Jimmy Carter’s 10 point bounce after the 1980 Democratic Convention
evaporated quickly. Presidential debates have also been turning
points in some Presidential
elections, starting with the first televised debate, Kennedy vs. Nixon,
in
1960. The upcoming debates could well sway the vote. Therefore, the
race
remains in flux in spite of recent setbacks to the Kerry camp.
Kerry’s Woes
Troubling for Kerry is that the Republicans have
continued to shift the nation's agenda toward terrorism, a Bush
stronghold, and away
from the economy, as the voters’ decisive issue. Terrorism is now at
26%,
up 8 points from early August, among registered voters.
Republicans, both
at the New York
convention
last week and since, have pounded Kerry on the terrorism issue.
The economy,
long a Kerry strength, has slipped to second place, at 24%, down 3
points
since early August among registered voters.
Most important Issues in Vote Decision
(Registered Voters)
|
Sept.7-Sept.9
|
Aug. 31-Sept.
2
|
Aug. 3-5
|
Jul. 20-22
|
War
on Terrorism
|
26%
|
24%
|
18%
|
18%
|
Economy
|
24%
|
25%
|
27%
|
27%
|
Situation
in Iraq
|
17%
|
17%
|
19%
|
21%
|
Moral
Values Issues
|
17%
|
16%
|
18%
|
16%
|
Health
Care
|
9%
|
11%
|
11%
|
2%
|
Even more damaging to Kerry is that Bush now has a
6
point lead on handling of the economy, 50% - 44%. Just one month
ago, Kerry
had the edge, 51% - 42%.
Bush has also taken commanding leads over Kerry on
handing of the following issues:
- War on terrorism: Bush is up 23
percentage
points over Kerry, 58% - 35%, compared to an 8 point lead in early
August.
- Situation in Iraq: Bush is up 20
points
over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a 2 point edge in early August.
- Commander in Chief: Bush is up 20
points
over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a tie in early August.
Kerry now has only a small edge on health care,
47%
- 42%, falling from an 18 point margin in early August. He’s now
just even
up with Bush, 47% Bush – 44% Kerry, on “understanding the needs of
people
like yourself,” after leading Bush by 15 points in early August.
Key Electability Indicators
Bush’s ratings on three key questions tied to
electability have risen in recent weeks, but Bush still gets tentative
scores on two of
the three.
- Job rating: Bush is now at 56%
approve
– 41% disapprove, solidly above the 50% historical threshold for
re-electing
incumbents. A month ago, he was up only 5 points, with his favorability
just at 50%.
- Deserves re-election?: Bush has
cracked
the 50% mark for the first time in recent Poll history, with 52% saying
he deserves re-election, while 45% saying it’s time for someone
new.
Just a month ago, Bush was down by 12 points on deserving re-election.
- Right Direction?: Voters are now
almost
evenly divided on whether the country is headed in the right direction
or on the wrong track, 46% - 49%. However that’s up from 44% right
direction
– 51% wrong track in early August.
Bush Favorability Up, Kerry Down
Bush’s favorability scores have risen
significantly,
to 54% favorable - 38% unfavorable. In early August, his favorability
was
even, 45% favorable – 45% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Kerry’s
unfavorable ratings
have increased significantly. His favorable – unfavorable scores are
now
even, 43% favorable – 42% unfavorable. In early August, Kerry
favorable
– unfavorable ratio was almost 2 to 1, 53% favorable – 29%
unfavorable.
Bush Post-Republican Convention
Bush’s scores on a battery of character and
performance
questions improved significantly last week. The Poll finds no
damage so
far from recently published allegations that Bush evaded duties while
in
the National Guard during the Vietnam War. Comparing his standing in
the
Time pre-Republican Convention poll in late August to this week’s
post-Convention
poll, we find that Bush burnished his image among registered voters in
the
following areas:
- Likeability: 70% now say it
“accurately
describes” Bush, compared to 65% pre-Convention.
- Understands the issues: 61% say it
accurately describes Bush, compared to 54% pre-Convention.
- Cares about people like you: 53% now,
up from 50% pre-Convention.
- Has good judgment: 54% now, up from
50% pre-Convention.
- Has clear plans to solve America’s
problems: 49% now, up from 44%.
Iraq
Voters remain divided on Iraq.
A slim majority, 53% now says the U.S.
was “right to go to war” with Iraq,
but 43% say it was wrong. In early August voters divided evenly,
47% - 47%
on Iraq.
Voters are also evenly divided about whether
actions
in Iraq
have
made the world safer, 44% safer – 46% more dangerous. In early August,
a narrow
majority of voters (52% more dangerous – 38% safer) believed that the
actions
made the world more dangerous.
Wither the Gender Gap?
This week’s Time Poll finds surprising
Kerry
slippage among females – long a Democratic mainstay. Females are
now evenly
split between Bush (45%) and Kerry (44%). Males heavily favor
Bush, 56%
- 34%. In early August, females gave Kerry a sizeable 50%-36%
lead over Bush.
“Movable” Voter Pool Shrinking
This week’s Time Poll also finds slight shrinkage
in
the number of “movable” likely voters, that is, likely voters who are
either undecided (3%) or say they might change their minds after
choosing a candidate in the poll (12%). Moveables are now down to
15%, from 19% in late August.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by
telephone
September 7 – 9, 2004
among a random sample of 1,219 adults throughout America.
The random sample includes 1,013 reported registered voters and
857 likely
voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3
percentage
points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4%
points.
- Likely voters reported party
identifications
are: 34% Republican, 35% Democratic, 22% Independents.
- Registered voters party
affiliations
are: 31% Republican, 32% Democratic, 26% Independent.
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI)
Public Affairs
designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time
questionnaire
and trend data may be found at www.srbi.com.